![]() In addition to making the projections probabilistic, I will also attempt to simulate another important dynamic which seems to take hold as the playoffs approach, and which we are all hoping might help propel the Football Team into the playoffs. While my approach isn’t likely to be particularly accurate at predicting individual game or team-season outcomes, I am hoping it illustrates the broad range of possibilities in a sport where unpredictable events frequently influence game outcomes. You aren’t going to call outcomes like that by just picking the favorites. Even winless Detroit managed to not lose to Pittsburgh, in a 16-point tie. That same week featured two other major upsets with Miami beating Baltimore 22 to 10 and Carolina beating Arizona 34 to 10. In Week 10, coming off the bye, the ragtag band of misfits in burgundy and gold, led by a quarterback less than a year removed from sleeping on his sister’s couch, took the field against the reigning Super Bowl champs, featuring an all-star roster headlined by the ageless wonder Tom Brady, and somehow managed to not only win, but beat the spread by 20 points. Just consider how we got to the point that it’s possible to talk about playoff scenarios, a mere three weeks after most of the fanbase, myself included, were ready to give up on the season. The key point of departure is that my approach recognizes that, no matter how overmatched an underdog team like Taylor Heinicke’s Football Team might appear to be, there’s always a chance they’ll pull of an upset, even if it’s a tiny chance. In contrast to the usual approach of calling games based on the matchup of the opposing team’s strengths and weaknesses, I will take a simpler approach based on the two teams’ recent win-loss records. In this series I will attempt to embrace the broad range of outcomes which are possible in a sport where games are often decided by unpredictable events, like a kicker pulling his hamstring, the starting center breaking his leg, or the backup QB exceeding expectations after taking over for the injured starter.Įach week, I will set the stage by determining each team’s chance of winning its matchup, and then step back and let the games play out according to the will of the football gods, which will be represented by the random number generator in Microsoft Excel. While Bill’s weekly WFT season projections spring from an indefatigable optimism about the Team’s direction, mine comes from a different place. Like Bill, each week until the season ends, or the Football Team is eliminated from contention, I am going to project the outcomes of the WFT’s remaining schedule, and the rest of the NFL for that matter. ![]() This article takes inspiration – some might say blatantly steals ideas – from Bill in Bangkok’s new series, tracking the Washington Football Team’s prospects of making the playoffs.
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